In 7 years, Apple’s market share doubled, from 3% to to 6%. Kind of like watching paint dry. That’s great for Apple, but in comparison to Windows, it is a David and Goliath scenario. Apple’s growth hardly shows on a chart. In an effort to look at Apple and Microsoft from something other than a David and Goliath perspective, I came up with the year over year change in market share view.
Source: massaged Net Applications data
The chart shows that Macintosh has been slowly adding market share and Windows slowly losing market share. Far less dramatic an outcome than I was expecting when I started capturing the data. In addition to boredom, I lost confidence in the data I was collecting. Net Applications once dramatically changed the way they reported their data. Macintosh suddenly lost half their market share. It was hard to trust data that changed that dramatically overnight.
Net Applications has been criticized for the validity of their data, and as someone who has closely monitored the data reported, I can verify the data is heavily massaged, and the techniques for collecting information have changed over time. Net Applications recently broke out mobile o/s coverage and the early data was rather wonky as they figured things out.
These data have proven fodder for tech blogs. Every month, several articles highlight the monthly increases and decreases in market share for various products. I find no value in this discussion as the data is all over the map. It can’t hold up to that kind of scrutiny. At best, the data can be used to look at trends in the long term. For years, I have watched these data. Macintosh market share up a little, Windows market share down a little. Then we entered the Post-PC era.
By looking at the chart, it appears Apple was hurt by the ‘economic adjustment’ more than the rest of the market, but has recovered nicely. Windows, on the other hand, seems to have fallen off a cliff. A monthly drop in market share is not noteworthy, but string a dozen bad months together and you have a real problem. 2011 may prove to be the beginning of the Post PC era.
As a possible explanation, let me offer this up. People are using mobile devices more and more to access the Internet (remember what information Net Applications is tracking). People still have their PCs, and they’re still using them to access the Internet. It’s just that they now have additional devices. People are supplementing PC Internet access with a variety of mobile devices.
The PC is not dead, perhaps it’s just taking a breather. Gartner and IDC confirm that PC shipments are not good, but the sky is not falling, yet. One thing I do believe is dead, is the Wintel dynasty. No one platform is ever going to dominate like Intel and Microsoft did. And I don’t believe they can get it back. The Internet is becoming a truly open system, open to any device willing and able to support open standards.
I’m reminded of the movie, Toy Story. Woody (played by Microsoft in this version) is Andy’s favorite toy. That is, until Buzz Lightyear (played by Apple and Google [you need 2 to get to infinity and beyond]) shows up. Suddenly, Woody isn’t the center of attention anymore. Too bad for Woody. In the end, everything works out and everybody gets along. It’s just different. Pleasant dreams.
@Info_Dave